After years of being called the country of
the future, Brazil appears to be en route to
becoming a major player on the global stage.
In spite of its abundant natural resources and
its sizeable domestic market, Brazils
potential had always remained a promise. Boom
and bust economics as well as hyperinflation
have often slowed the Latin American countrys
progress in the past.
Now economic stability has returned and the
country is attracting investment from the world
over. Brazils newfound economic prowess
has been based on expanding production of its
major commodities such as iron ore, oil, soy
and sugar over the last few years, which has
provided the country with a strong trade balance
and stabilized its current accounts. This, in
turn, has given successive governments the foundation
to stamp out inflation, which was the bugbear
of Brazilians in the 1980s and 1990s, and to
impose greater discipline on fiscal spending.
As a result, foreign investors, looking for
alternative high-yield investments outside the
U.S. and Europe, have flocked into Brazil. And
that wave of investment may only intensify as
economists are expecting Brazilian sovereign
debt to receive investment grade in 2008, which
will allow a whole new group of institutional
investors to come in.
Meanwhile, increased stability has allowed
the central bank to reduce interest rates from
the astronomical level of 45 percent per year
seen in 1999 to the current level of 11.25 percent.
This decline in interest rates has unleashed
pent-up demand and kickstarted the worlds
tenth largest economy once again.
Car sales are at record levels, while the
housing market is exploding and retailers are
in rude health, all because of the explosion
of consumer credit following the fall in interest
rates.
Brazils government expects gross domestic
product to grow 4.7 percent this year and recently
Finance Minister Guido Mantega said the country
could register growth above 5 percent over for
the next three or four years.
Foreign funds are flowing into a wide spectrum
of sectors, including sugarcane-based ethanol
production for use as an alternative fuel, and
infrastructure.
They are also supporting the wave of initial
public offerings on the Sao Paulo Stock Exchange,
or Bovespa, as medium-sized companies such as
construction firm Gafisa, shippers Wilson,Sons
and even the BM&F commodities and futures
exchange seek to take advantage of the positive
outlook to raise funds for expansion. This expansion
is likely to continue as China leads demand
for Brazils core commodities.
Brazil is already a key global supplier of
iron ore and it could also become a major oil
exporter, if it manages to exploit the massive
offshore reserves whose discovery was recently
announced by state-oil company Petrobras. In
addition, it is one of the worlds leading
food exporters and it is likely to become ever
more important in this area as it is one of
the few countries that still has abundant untilled
arable land.
Years of mediocre growth had led some economists
to question whether Brazil really deserved to
be classed along with Russia, India and China
as one of the BRIC nations. But Brazil appears
to be coming of age and doubters are fewer and
fewer.