Could you take us back in time and explain
the context in which this transition proceeded,
and what was the role of the monetary sector?
I would like to welcome you and I am happy
to give an interview for your newspaper. I think
it is the most readable newspaper in the world.
As I mentioned, wherever I go I always take
this newspaper to read, so thank you very much.
Let me begin with how we started market economy
reforms 10-15 years ago in Mongolia when the
Communist regime collapsed. We have gone through
this very difficult time of reform in the banking
sector. It was in the early '90s, precisely
in 1991, when the law on the Central Bank was
adopted by Ikh Khural. At that time it was not
parliament, but Ikh Khural. Mongolia has a two-tiered
banking system, while before it was only mono-tiered
banking system. It was suitable for centrally
planned economy. With a two-tiered banking system
the beginning was quite difficult, because there
were no central banking regulations. There were
no instruments through which the central bank
could have control over commercial banks. Some
important laws regulating banking system were
adopted by parliament later on in mid -90s when
the banking system was in chaos.
Then the financial crisis hit the Asian counties
and unfortunately it didn't pass by Mongolia.
We were also hit by the Asian financial crisis
of 1997-1998. At that time non-performing loans
in the banking sector counted for 50% of the
total portfolio and four or five banks went
bankrupt. The banking sector lost the total
confidence of market, of the population and
of society in general. Then there was a parliament
election in 2000 and our party won. At that
time the chairman of the party, the prime minister,
who is now the current president, has set new
goals for Mongolia in all sectors including
banking. He has invited me to join his team
and I did it with pleasure. I would say that
from 2000, our banking sector has been doing
well.
I understand that in this period, in the
past 4-5 years, you managed to reduce non-performing
loans from 25% to 8%.
Now it's even lower. In November it was 6%.
Inflation has been low for the last 4-5 years.
On average it is 4 or 5%. For Mongolia it is
quite good, but you can't compare it to the
US or European standards.
But we still have to acknowledge that it
is still in a transition period.
Yes. The foreign exchange rate is good as
well. It has been stable during the last 4-5
years, and the depreciation rate was a little
more than 10% to the US dollar.
You were talking about lost confidence
after the Asian crisis. This is the situation
you inherited when you became the governor of
the Central Bank. Can you tell us how this confidence
was regained? You have given us optimistic and
positive statistics. How has this been restored
to the point we see today?
Right after the elections in 2000 we submitted
to parliament a number of amendments to regulate
banking business. After very long and difficult
discussions and considerations, parliament finally
approved the laws, and this has tightened the
financial discipline in the banking sector.
It has helped a lot in order to bring good order
to the banking sector. Then after 3 or 4 years,
I would say almost in 2003, the banking sector
again has the confidence of the market, but
most importantly from foreign investors. That
is why we successfully managed to sell two large
government-owned banks to foreign investors.
The largest was sold to a US-Swiss consortium
and the second one, the Agricultural Bank, was
sold to a Japanese financial group. These two
banks are doing very well in the market.
They are the Agricultural Bank and the
Trade and Development Bank? Can you tell us
more about the privatization process? This is
always very delicate issue in a transitional
government. How has Mongolia managed to do it
successfully? I understand that the entire sector,
made up of 17 banks, now has only one of which
is state-owned.
Yes. The privatization process started in
the early 90s. We have gone through very difficult
times. From a current point of view, some things
we did well, and some we did not, but there
is no success without mistakes. In principle
we have done successful privatization in the
banking sector. The two large banks were sold
to foreign investors and foreign investors have
brought not only investment-capital, but also
skills for how to manage the modern banking
business. They have brought international experience
for how to run and how to evaluate and how to
access risks in the modern world. All other
domestic banks are following these banks, the
TDB and Khaan Bank.
Could you give us an overview of the private
banking sector? In the country with relatively
low GDP (2 billion USD), can you tell us why
there are so many banks? There are currently
17 private banks. Do you feel this is an appropriate,
and how do you see this developing?
Yes. There are too many for this market and
for population of 2,700,000 people. That is
why the Bank of Mongolia has tightened the capital
requirement. We have increased the capital requirement
to no less than 8 million USD by end of first
quarter of next year. We expect that the number
of banks will be reduced and at least 3 or 4
banks will close. A lot of foreigners are coming
to Mongolia to set up a bank here. We are advising
them: instead of building a new one, take a
look at small ones to possibly buy them. I think
that is part of our strategy: to take investment
to the country. Two memorandums have been signed
by foreign investors to take over small banks
in Mongolia.
Do you see this as proceeding consolidation
of some of the small banks?
Yes. Consolidation is taking place everywhere
- in the US, Europe and Japan. That is why we
are also trying to consolidate banks here, pushing
them into consolidation through policies and
regulations.
In a lot of the research I did and articles
that I read there are constant references to
the Southeast Asian model. It's a model for
international development and for attracting
investment and thus gaining capital and expertise
from more developed countries. How has this
model been applied to Mongolia? Do you think
it is applicable?
Yes. I think it has been working quite well
for Mongolia, and the last 4-5 years of experience
has shown this. Now GDP growth is quite high,
living standards have grown, and inflow of foreign
exchange has increased significantly.
So this has been important. In the development
of the banking sector you talk about how you
managed to reduce poverty and raise the living
standard. Can you give us insight into what
you feel is the role of the both the Central
Bank and the private banking sector in distributing
wealth and being a partner in Mongolia's development?
As a Central Band we are able to play a key
role in ensuring high living standards for the
people. It is one of the government's goals.
But the Central Bank's main goal and its function
today are maintaining financial and monetary
stability, and not to break the stability we
have maintained for the last four years. Our
main goal for the time being is not to loose
the confidence and transfer the foreign investors.
Foreign investment is a key factor for the rapid
development of Mongolia because we have had
quite a low savings rate. In 1990 our savings
rate was, on average 5 percent and after 2000
it rose to 15 percent. That is why if you look
at the balance sheet of the money supply you
will see fast growth. The fortunate thing is
that without provoking any inflation in the
country we allowed the market to grow faster
than we expected.
In relation with the overall monetary situation,
the budget deposit is in a very healthy situation,
much more so than in recent years. You said
however that you foresee in coming years that
this could be reduced to 3 percent of GDP. How
do you feel this is going to be possible?
It is true that the budget deficit was high.
Five years ago it was around 15 percent of the
GDP, but it has been declining steadily over
the last 4 years. Last year it was 1.8 percent,
and the year before it was 3 percent. This year
we run with less than 1 percent - 0.8 percent.
I think it has been possible in Mongolia thanks
to good budget policy. We didn't significantly
increase our budget at the same time as we improved
the collection of the taxes throughout the country.
Tax bases have been increased significantly
over the last 4 years. In 2000-2001 the total
revenue for the budget was around 300 million
USD. Today it is more than 800 million. So how
did we succeed in improving our budget situation?
Even today our government is further improving
goals, such as creating a more favorable tax
regime and also giving domestic business investors
the ability to invest more in the domestic market.
Two years ago, for example, the government reduced
the tax level from 40-30 percent for big companies.
At that time some economists and politicians
were arguing that the budget would be in a big
deficit next year, but it didn't happen. What
happened was that revenue increased.
I would like you to take our readers through
how the stable banking sector in Mongolia plays
a direct role in attracting foreign investment.
The most interesting thing is we have is one
of the most liberalized financial regime on
the Asian continent. There is no control, no
restrictions on inflow and outflow of foreign
exchange, etc. And the very interesting thing
is, and keep in mind that I have been in the
banking business in Mongolia for more than 25
years, and at the time of centrally planned
economy there was very tough control over foreign
exchange movements while inflow in the country
was decreasing. When we liberalized, some economists
were arguing that Mongolia would loose all foreign
exchange overseas. In reality it didn't happen.
In fact, we have more and more foreign exchange.
Today if you look at the balance sheets of our
commercial banks, almost half of the total deposits
in the banking sector are foreign exchange.
But we don't take any actions against the business
tactics of our commercial banks, we let them
do what they want.
What role did you have in the creation
of this policy yourself? I know that if we go
back to Europe and your career within the banking
sector in Mongolia, and as far back as the 1990s,
you were advisor to the governor in the State
Bank of Mongolia. You worked previously in various
different capacities before becoming governor
in 2000. What was your role in developing this
strategy?
It was not my role, but I am a person who
predicts the behavior of the market and its
currencies. That is why we let the market dictate
its own roles and regulations in the market,
also let the currencies behave as they like.
Currencies also like stability, just like human
beings.
In terms of your experience in other countries,
I know that you were in NY for two years. Did
you learn any technical ability there that you
managed to bring back to Mongolia?
I have been in banking for more than 20 years.
In1985 there was a small international foreign
exchange department in the State Bank, and I
actively traded very heavily in Moscow when
I was chief trade director of the international
bank for economic cooperation. I made many friends
overseas in Europe, the US and Japan. Then in
1996 one of my friends invited me to join his
team in NY. I thought that if I managed to gain
some experience in the market I hoped to bring
it back to Mongolia and to the Mongol Bank.
Speaking about the concept of international
sharing, I know that Mongol Bank is prioritizing
and cooperating with a lot of international
agencies - The Asian Development Bank, World
Bank, IMF, etc. You have taken very open and
collaborative approach to planning and to stabilizing
the financial sector. Is this important to you
personally? Why do you believe this is a way
to proceed?
First, Mongolia is a new player in the free
market environment. We wanted to create a market
economic infrastructure in Mongolia's Central
Bank, but we had no experience or knowledge
how to do it. At this very difficult time in
early 1990s we asked IMF, World Bank and ADB
to provide us with assistance, which they had
already done and we are very thankful for that.
They helped us create this market economy infrastructure
and today the Mongolian economy can go forward.
To what extent do you feel it is a critical
time for Mongolia? Do you feel that these years
are going to be fundamental for Mongolia to
further its investment and collaborations?
Yes, these are just the first 2 or 3 years
after we achieved financial and social stability.
This is the time when foreign investors are
beginning to look at Mongolia. This is the time
when we actively, heavily reactivated our business
and economic relations with our biggest neighbor,
China. China is almost one of the biggest economic
factors now influencing development of the Mongolian
economy. China is our number one trading partner,
and it has become our number one investment
partner. Also a lot of big names of the business
world are looking at this opportunity - just
because of China. Mongolia is a very small country,
with a small market, and is not very attractive
for big companies in the US, Europe or Japan.
But in terms of mining, Mongolia could become
very competitive in terms of some of the commodities
that are being sold to the Chinese market.
Mongolia is benefiting a lot from the mining
sector - benefiting from demand and high prices
we seen for commodities. To what extent do you
feel dependent on this? Do you feel there are
any risks?
As the Chinese economy grows, as long as China
spends a lot of money on commodities, because
China gives us a stable demand, I think this
demand will be sustainable over the next 20
years. We should take advantage of this situation.
Do you think that Mongolia is fully prepared
to take this advantage or what left to be done?
Obviously you are taking advantage of this.
We see positive developments in mining investment
for example. But how can Mongolia develop further
and position itself even better to take advantage
of this as a strategic trading partner?
The only way for us do it better is to attract
foreign investment.
You've explained how the leadership of
the public Central Bank is guiding the sector
and attracting foreign investment. What the
agencies and what are sectors have fundamental
roles in this?
Another important window for foreign investment
would have been the stock exchange. Unfortunately
the stock exchange is still dead. Now the government
and Mongol Bank are trying to reactivate the
stock exchange. They are negotiating with foreign
investors to take over the management of the
stock exchange, which is what we have done with
Agricultural Bank. Five or six years ago Ag
Bank was in very bad shape and we signed a contract
with the management team from abroad with the
American Bankers Team to take over the management.
They worked 2 or 3 years and all characteristic
indicators are significantly improved. That
is why we sold it successfully to the foreign
investor. This is exactly the same method we
are pursuing for a stock exchange. We think
it is better to invite a foreign manager because
Mongolians have no experience yet.
In terms of what you can provide to the
international investors, would you like to communicate
this directly to our IHT readership? These investors
are interested to know what's going on in the
banking sector, what you have to say about your
sector, about your public leadership of this
private sector and services that can be offered
to potential investors.
I would say the Mongolian banking sector is
in good shape. It is regulated by international
standards. We are supervising all our commercial
banks based on 25 core principles. Committees
and banks are doing a good job, and also the
market is very friendly to our commercial banks.
There is a good financial discipline in Mongolia.
Our legal environment is quite acceptable, and
that is why the first foreign investors came
to the banking sector. Also Mongolians are very
friendly people to foreigners.
It is cold
Yes, but Mongolia can provide warm hospitality.
Is there final message you would like to
communicate, not simply about the banking sector,
but about your country?
Please come to Mongolia to see it, even George
Bush visited us - the land of Chinggis Khaan-
to shake hands. If Chinggis Khaan were alive
he would have been very happy to shake hands
with Mr. Bush. Please come visit us!